NSG Property Research Department agrees with comments made by respected independent researcher Michael Matusik. Michael says:

There’s no doubt that the Queensland housing market had been in the doldrums for some time now. And if you believe some of what has been written, we’re there to stay.

In fact, according to one economic blog, that I read recently, Queensland’s most recent 30-odd-years of impressive growth will now be followed by a 100-year (yes,100-year!) slump.

Fortunately, not everything that is written is true and sometimes it is necessary to delve further than attention-grabbing headlines to get to the facts.

So today, in an attempt to keep things real, we take a brief look at the current state of the Queensland market.
There’s no argument that things have been better here. Our population growth is currently slowing and as a result, so too is our share of national housing starts and new dwelling sales.

One of the reasons for this slowdown is that Queensland is no longer as affordable as it once was.
About eight years ago, house prices started to climb about the local market’s capacity to pay.

In the early 2000s, Queensland households were paying just 25 per cent of their income towards the mortgage. Today, this is close to 40 per cent.

As a result, net interstate migration to the state began to drop and net arrivals to Queensland from elsewhere across Australia continue to slide.

Most people move to a place because they can get work. Our research confirms a close relationship between total migration to Queensland and the number of fulltime jobs.
And here is where the good news begins.

Queensland is starting to create full-time jobs again – a trend which should accelerate next year and beyond – which in turn will lead to high levels of migration, stronger housing demand and eventually, price (and rental) growth.

While we do have a three-speed economy, the overriding problem is that we are still recovering from the enormous hit of the January floods and Cyclone Yasi. These combined to batter confidence levels and cut production of coal, iron ore, copper and other minerals as well as many rural products.

More than $135 billion worth of resource-based projects planned to start over the next three years coupled with the flood rebuilding and the big infrastructure plans already in play across the southeast corner of the state, means the Queensland economy is set to start recovering from next year – a recovery that is likely to surprise many on the upside.

Another important piece of news is that the Queensland new housing market, unlike many other places across Australia, is not oversupplied.

Queensland is, in fact, now facing an undersupply of new dwelling stock. If our population growth escalates then we could see prices (and rents) start to climb again – and in earnest.

At NSG our philosophy is to take a contrarian view in relation to when to buy!

Most people get interested in buying when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. Don’t wait for the market to boom before you buy!

This report is republished with permission of “Matusik Property Insights” www.matusikmissive.wordpress.com